To support designing policies to transition away from linear fossil-based systems towards sustainable circular bio-based ones, proposals should:

1. Consolidate knowledge on current trends in terms of the environmental, economic and social limits of a linear carbon-intensive and fossil-based economy. By limits, we mean technical and structural barriers and/or inability to reach local and global Sustainable Development Goals (e.g. SDGs, climate change mitigation targets, European Green Deal objectives).
2. Develop new/improve existing methodologies to assess environmental/social/economic impacts of linearity vs circularity in the economy, including on waste production and disposal, non-renewable resources exploitation and loss, geographically (and socially) unbalanced distribution of resources and growth, biodiversity loss at global and local scale. The methodologies should consider circular economy indicators, methods and concepts developed or under development in existing initiatives, including Commission’s ongoing work on the circular economy monitoring framework and R&I activities.
3. Assess the environmental/social/economic impacts of the EU’s current linear fossil-based economy. This should include aspects related to the geographical distribution of oil origins and global trade, direct and indirect environmental impacts of fossil-based value chains on a life cycle base, including on, but not limited to, climate change, resource use including land, water and marine space, air/water/soil quality, ecosystems services and biodiversity. Costs arising from environmental and social impacts should be internalised in the economic impacts assessment.
4. Develop and compare multiple scenarios of transitioning from fossil-based to circular bio-based systems, modelling the replacement of the fossil-based activities, with a focus on the most carbon-intensive ones, with bio-based systems, including innovative solutions, at EU and global scale. Environmental/social/economic impacts of bio-based systems should be assessed with validated methodology, considering also the benefits of applying a circular approach to the bio-based systems. Biogenic carbon capture utilization (BCCU) solutions for bio-based systems via nature-based solutions (e.g. in soils or long-term circular bio-based materials) should be part of the assessment. Scenarios should compare the impacts of fossil-based and bio-based solutions, and include social aspects and social innovation, especially at the socio-technical interfaces of innovative solutions.
5. Identify knowledge gaps in the assessment of the sustainability of the transition from fossil-based to circular bio-based systems and in the comparison between alternative scenarios as described under point d).
6. Identify priorities in the transition from fossil-based to circular bio-based systems, according to scenarios analysed in the project and develop guidelines and policy recommendations.